According to UBS, the forecast for 2025 is a modest real wage growth due to a combination of low inflation and slight increases in nominal salaries, with the first positive increase in real wages since 2021.
Average wage development
Average wages are forecast to rise by 1.4–1.6% in 2025, which is a real increase of around 0.6–0.7% after accounting for forecast inflation. This is the first increase in recent years, where wages often lagged behind inflation.
Sector Variations
IT, telecommunications, energy, and pharmaceuticals, are expected to see higher-than-average wage growth, up to 2%. Other industries, like retail and media, anticipate lower increases. Lower than medium salaries will rise faster than the above medium salares. The exception is for top end salaries which may rise faster, in common with recent history.
Economic outlook
Falling inflation (0.7% for 2025) supports a rise in real wages. However, external pressures, such as rising health insurance premiums and increases in unemployment, may offset gains in wellbeing for households.
Union Demands
Unions are pushing for significantly higher increases, citing the need to address long-standing wage stagnation. Some groups have called for raises of up to 5%.
Demographics
Older generations will see less of an increase, partly because their wages are often already above the median wage. Pensioners will continue to see negative development because state pension rises lag inflation, and professional (second pillar) pensions are not generally inflation linked. Additionally Pillar II conversion rates are dropping: low interest rates and inflation are bad news for the pension industry.
Overall, while Swiss workers can expect their purchasing power to improve in 2025, the increases are modest compared to union demands and the broader cost-of-living.
Swissroll GmbH was founded over 20 years ago. Our team of experts has worked with hundreds of companies and literally thousands of contractors. Also cross border workers. Beyond our core function of payroll management, we offer advice to workers about which engagement model best suits theirs, and the client’s needs. This includes giving advice in French, German and English and on social security, tax as well as working remotely and what to do in the when looking for accommodation. Call or contact us now on: enquiries@swissroll.ch
Stephen Clothier has a background as a space physicist and military pilot. As a Charted Computer Science Engineer, he has four decades experience in developing solutions for financial institutions and Swiss banks, and in many other areas of aviation, medicine and defence.
His last 20 years has seen him specialising in financial, operational and legal aspects Swiss employment. Stephen is a director, and Head of IT and Business services for Swissroll and its parent, Accurity Group in Switzerland.
